How will people of color vote in the upcoming election? Are we seeing shifts in their voting patterns compared to previous elections? Does the gender gap vary across demographic groups? Sara Sadhwani, assistant professor of politics, sheds light on these questions, drawing from her research on voting behavior within ethnic, racial and immigrant communities. This interview is part of an occasional series looking at key issues influencing voters this election season.
Kamala Harris is only the second woman to head a major party presidential ticket, and the first person of Indian-American heritage, yet she seldom refers to her identity. Is that a strategic decision?
At the general election stage, Kamala Harris has the goal of bringing in moderates, independents and even some Republicans who have become disenchanted with Donald Trump. Identity politics is of greatest concern to the political left, so we don’t see her referencing her race or gender identity, because doing so might actually turn off some of those moderate voters. They are less motivated by identity appeals and more interested in how she would govern and how she contrasts with Trump. Notably, when asked directly about her race, her gender or the historic nature of her candidacy, she provides a short answer and pivots to other more substantive policy topics.
Are the voting patterns of people of color starting to be more similar to that of the general electorate?
For decades, Latino and Asian American voter turnout lagged behind that of White and Black Americans. The 2020 presidential election saw a major increase in voter turnout and brought those numbers into greater alignment, but we don’t yet have a reliable sense of whether that trend will persist.
The 2024 election is exposing a growing gender gap where women are supporting Harris over Trump in numbers that haven’t been seen in the past. Recent polling from the New York Times and Sienna College shows that Harris has the support of 56 percent of women, with 40 percent supporting Trump, a 16 percentage point advantage. This is larger than the gender gap found in the 2016 election matchup between Trump and Hillary Clinton, which, according to the Rutgers Center for the American Woman and Politics, was 11 percent. And it is consistent across racial groups.
By contrast, much attention also has been paid to Black and Latino men who, like White men, are defecting from the Democratic party to support Trump. New research finds a similar trend among Asian American men as well.
How likely is it that down-ballot candidates or issues on state ballots will motivate higher than average voter turnout? Could that play a decisive role in the presidential outcome?
It is very likely that candidates and ballot initiatives could motivate certain segments of the electorate that might not otherwise cast a ballot. In Arizona, for example, there is a tight senate race in which Ruben Gallegos, a moderate Democrat, is facing off against the Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake. Research has shown that a Latino on the ballot can in some instances spur Latino turnout. So while some Latinos may have been tuning out the presidential election, they might get excited to vote for Gallego and cast a ballot for president as well. Also, states such as Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Nebraska and Arizona all have abortion-related propositions on the ballot this fall. Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, most of the time when abortion rights are on the ballot, they have passed, so this could also be a galvanizing force at the ballot box this fall.